2010 Hurricane season…

The National Hurricane Center in the USA’s been saying that conditions are ripe for a long and eventful hurricane season this year. Some forecasters are saying that we should expect that “11-16 named storms will develop, 6-8 of them hurricanes and 3-5 of the hurricanes to become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.”

The predictions go on to suggest that there’s a “64 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline during 2010” (the long-term average probability is 52 percent), a “40 percent probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas” (the long-term average for both areas is about 30 percent), and a “53 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean” (the average probability in that area during the last century is 42 percent).

The basis for these predictions is the anticipated dissipation of the El Niño conditions and the unusually warm ocean water temperatures in the central Atlantic ocean, both of which contribute to increased probability of hurricane formation.

What does that mean for us? Well, we’ll probably try to do any offshore sailing in or before June instead of later in the year, and we’ll plan on doing mostly day-sailing or closer-to-home-port sailing until hurricane season’s over for the year.

Stay safe, y’all!

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